Nuclear Act One

Nuclear Act One audio version

We will never see another voluntary relinquishing of nuclear weapons/capability. The reason for this is us.

Wait, let me rephrase that. The reason we will never see another voluntary relinquishing of nuclear weapons is the USA. We could have done things differently but, we didn't.

During 45's term he inexplicably chose to vacate the agreement that had been negotiated by a previous administration with Iran. The result of that was that Iran made the perfectly rational decision to renew their efforts to join the nuclear club. Because he chose not to honor a reasonable international agreement, no leaders of other nations will ever consider such an agreement "ironclad" ever again.

When the USSR broke up, some of the former constituent nations had nuclear leftovers. Those who didn't want the hassle and expense of maintenance and upkeep voluntarily gave up that nuclear material. Ukraine was one of those nations. The USA tacitly agreed to ensure there were no negative repercussions from their greater good act. Then Russia invaded them and we did diddly squat. 47 has shown a distinct preference for interacting with autocrats and Putin is his favorite. So even the monetary and weapons assistance they have gotten from us is at risk immediately upon 47's inauguration.

The rest of the world has no problem seeing this. The entirety of the world in no longer under the delusion that the USA will protect them if they give up their nuclear ability or ambition. The rest of the world will have their fingers crossed behind their backs and a smirk on their lips as they sign "ironclad" agreements with the USA knowing full well that the next POTUS might just decide to not honor it.

Governance at all levels, from the hyper-local to the international (and probably beyond in the not-so-distant future) is predicated on the willingness of the populace to be governed. When the population refuses, governance doesn't happen. When the population has no trust in the documents and agreements of governance, they are significantly less likely to participate and/or adhere to the conditions of the agreement. We have burned such trust and good will as we had acquired post WWII. The next time we want to talk to a nation about their nuclear abilities/ambitions, we will need to show up with money and will probably still not be trusted.

You might be forgiven for kneejerking to the idea that this is not something you, on American soil, need to worry about. I think you're wrong. The expense of nuclear technology includes the cost to secure the facility and/or the material and/or the device(s). With no known threat, there would be extreme temptation to save money by reducing security. There are probably a thousand terror groups in the world actually salivating over the prospect. A lot of them want to kill you. The potential for terror groups that want me dead of having access to nuclear weapons/material is something that I think bears watching.

Either way, we have screwed the pooch. Once a nation's leaders decide to sell their nuclear materials, it will be difficult to justify not going with the highest bidder regardless of who that is. I can pretty much guarantee that we are not going to like the repercussions of our actions.

I ain't psychic but, I can see.