Alternative(explosive) Economic Indicators

 I live in an area of roughly half a million residents.  There are quite a bit of rural and semi-rural citizens.  We are in the general vicinity of the Southern Appalachian mountains.

We really like fireworks.

When I got out of the USN in 1983, the 4th of July, along with other holidays, were sufficient justification for anyone who had two nickels to rub together to buy and set off fireworks.  As a general rule, the celebrations started early and finished well after the holiday.  Independence Day was, If you judged it by the fireworks, a week long event at a minimum.

I just got off of my bicycle after riding ~5miles to have a beer (or three) with friends and then riding 5miles back.  Now, since I hate pain and expense, I usually stick to lesser traveled roads.  Essentially I stay in residential areas as much as possible.  Today, I went out of my way to look for the detritus typically left in the streets and such after civilians set off fireworks.

I did not see any.  TBF, I had not heard anything that sounded like fireworks for the previous several days.  That is not “normal”.  In the old days of say, 10-20 years ago, the fireworks were audible and visible for a solid week.

Regardless of what the government uses or says, I am telling you that the economy has folks nervous.   Getting your average hillbilly redneck to forgo fireworks on the 4th (and by “on” I mean anywhere near) is pert near impossible.  As a matter of fact, about the only way is to make sure they have no money to buy the fireworks.

I have never seen a pundit or a governmental operative mention fireworks as an economic indicator.  They probably should.  If you feel good about the economy, going out and spending a few hundred dollars on stuff you are going to light on fire might seem reasonable.  If you lack that good feeling, you might want to hold that cash in reserve for whatever comes next.

Regardless of what lies magats and the GOP are trying to spread, the truth is in the trash - or more specifically in this case, the lack of trash - fireworks trash that is.  Even the hardcore trumpers of East Tn do not have faith in his economy.  Under normal conditions, I would be leading the call to ignore them.  But this might just be a good time to pay attention to them.

Stuff You Ought To Know Already

 I take a fair amount of crap for my pedantry.  I seriously think that words ought to have specific meanings.  If you must know the exact context to understand a general statement, you are being lied to.

I grew up understanding that it was possible to purchase consumable alcohol that had not been subject to regulatory process and also had not been taxed.  The product was widely known as “moonshine”.  I also heard it referred to as “splo” and “white lightning”.

Eventually, those with a faulty(read: immoral) understanding of capitalism come for most everything.  This time, they came for words.  They started making and selling a product that adhered to regulations and that they paid taxes on.  They called the product “moonshine”.

Now, I understand marketing concepts reasonably well.  I understand that without some level of marketing, even the most ingenious and useful products can fail to have an impact because so few folks know it exists.  That said, it does not bode well for a product or a company if the only way they can be successful is to create a lie.

Unfortunately, we have become inured to such societal level insults.  I have no idea how many hundreds or thousands of times I have seen advertising “Coldest Beer In The …”.  I would bet tomorrow’s lunch money that none of the businesses where I saw those signs had done any research at all.  I doubt they think of themselves as liars but, actions speak louder than self image.

Politics is rife with lies.  Half-truths, partial-truths or, what Robert Heinlein said was the best way to lie which is to tell the truth so unconvincingly that no one believes you.  If we could start by getting in the habit of using words specifically, we could stand the chance of reducing the amount of overt lies we are subjected to.

It Wasn't Me

 Y'all may want to put on some protective equipment. There are some facts being thrown here and the pitcher is bringing the heat.

youtube.com/shorts/DzSBc...

Law Of Unintended Consequences part eleventy gazillion

 Sometimes my interests overlap in ways that I cannot justify ignoring.  TBF, it is not uncommon these days for science and technology to bleed over into politics (or vice versa).  Felon47 took a bunch of tech CEOs to China with him and that was not an accident.  It may have been the single intelligent thing to happen during this misadministration even if the optics could cause the titular character of the Who’s rock opera, Tommy to cringe uncontrollably.

In this particular case, this is something that I have not seen or heard mentioned anywhere else.  While I do tend to follow this tech guy and while I have never caught him in a lie or mistake, I understand that he is not Divine and is quite capable of being mistaken.  But if you are going to call him out, or call me out for sharing, you best bring receipts.

My suggestion is that you add this guy to your routine tech sources.  Even if, like me, some of what he talks about is over your head, his conclusions are definitely something to take into consideration.

How 1 HUGE Mistake can Lead to Chip Shortages

Improving Status

 A wide ranging bar conversation stumbled into the subject of overt and intentional idiocy.  Rather predictably, flat earthers came up.  We all marveled at the idea of someone looking through telescopes and looking at photos taken by other telescopes and not seeing any obviously flat objects yet, coming to the conclusion that the entire astrophysics community is in on the con.  Our heads shook at the various experiences we had with travel that made it look as though the surface of the planet was curved.  We pointed out every flaw in their “arguments” and the obviousity of said flaws.

Later on though, it occurred to me that we had “missed a trick”.  I challenged myself with a thought experiment.  If we were to stipulate the flat earthers had a point.  If we said that there was indeed proof that Earth was uniquely shaped in comparison to all of the objects viewable in the sky.  It is a strain on the intellect of rational peoples but go ahead and try to imagine it.  Imagine that everything you can remember, everything you have experienced in this life happened on the one non-spherical object in the observable universe the size of our planet.  Go ahead, fix that in your imaginations.  Ready?  

Now tell me what has changed.

Seriously, imagine the planet as the flat earthers describe it and then tell me how your life was improved or degraded by the revelation or the deception.  I am not asking for the math to describe the orbit of a satellite of a flat object.  I am talking about your life, your status, your existence.  What specifically changes if the planet is proved to be flat?  What if there are other flat planets?  What if there are flat stars being edited on the official photos of every nation with a telescope, how is your life improved??  

Now, perhaps I am just a paranoid from waaaaaaaay back but, when someone exerts an undue amount of effort in promoting something that is effectively meaningless, I immediately suspect them of trying to hide something or trying to distract from something.  However, I am willing to consider the idea that there might be something I am missing.  So clue a brotha in.  If there is a reason or effect that I have missed, feel free to tell me.

I am also more than mildly curious as to what the flat earthers are attempting to distract us from.  I have no problem believing that many, perhaps even a majority of the flat earthers, are simply useful idiots to some controlling authority.  But somewhere, there must be someone that is getting some benefit from folks ignoring evidence in the pursuit of convincing others to not trust their lying eyes.

So tell me, true, false or inbetween, what are the reasons and effects of spreading flat Earth theories?

Who Was Moses Fleetwood Walker

A post by my friend Bill Foster. 

In the post linked above, Bill talks about chaotic nature of race relations in the USA.  While, the trend is generally positive in my experience, setbacks are anything but difficult to find.  If you look at most any 100 year period, things have improved towards the end.  If instead you look at most any random 10 or 20 year period, negative or neutral trends are at least as likely as positive.  

We really need to do better.  Read the essay and share it widely.

Contagious Incompetence

 I am starting to suspect that Felon47 is not just catastrophically bad for the USA.  Given the unpredicted military troubles Russia is experiencing as the 2nd best army in Ukraine, it just makes sense to look at the factors that weren't taken into consideration when doing the assessments prior to Russia's initial attack on Ukraine.

No one in the Intel community would have actually expected POTUS to run interference for Vladimir Putin.  Our nation was (rightfully to my thinking) concerned about the expansion of the conflict to the point where a NATO ally was threatened or harmed which would result in us having to respond to an Article 5 situation.

While I never actually thought Putin's initial estimates of a week or less to take the capital, I did think that Ukraine would lose the hot war and then spend the next 20 or so years in a guerrilla war that would keep Russia occupied and out of the affairs of the "free" world.

The only reason I can come up with as to why the professionals - and my own - assessments were so wrong is that Felon47 is so mind-numbingly incompetent that his efforts to run interference for his Vladdy Daddy have actually helped Ukraine.  Other nations are willing to undertake extreme measures to assist Ukraine in no small part because they hate Trump and want him to fail.  Putin might have benefited from access to the American Intelligence apparatus but the Felon pays no attention to them and in some ways, they are comfortable with that.  If Putin says it, the Felon takes it as gospel.  So Putin has no one on his staff and no major allies that are willing and capable to tell him the truth or to demand the truth from him.

There are two major rules you must follow to win a war.  Know your enemy.  Know yourself.  Trump is too ignorant for rules and it is starting to look as though his ignorance is contagious.

It could not happen to a more deserving dictator.